Once in a while I like to go back in the past and see where we stood and what all we predicted. My world wide data center prediction was/is one of those things and I must admit it isn’t too bad. So is this list by Gartner and I must say that it is still pretty much close to its mark. Not bad, Gartner!
So here are the predictions from about 4 years back and my quick analysis on each of them.
By 2012, 20 percent of businesses will own no IT assets.Several interrelated trends are driving the movement toward decreased IT hardware assets, such as virtualization, cloud-enabled services, and employees running personal desktops and notebook systems on corporate networks.
The need for computing hardware, either in a data center or on an employee’s desk, will not go away. However, if the ownership of hardware shifts to third parties, then there will be major shifts throughout every facet of the IT hardware industry. For example, enterprise IT budgets will either be shrunk or reallocated to more-strategic projects; enterprise IT staff will either be reduced or reskilled to meet new requirements, and/or hardware distribution will have to change radically to meet the requirements of the new IT hardware buying points.
Yes, Is happening! Organizations are increasingly adopting Cloud Computing and we expect this to accelerate exponentially as more mature and players such as Google with huge scale enter the market. Google, as you might have noticed, has already made its Hyper Cloud play.
By 2012, India-centric IT services companies will represent 20 percent of the leading cloud aggregators in the market (through cloud service offerings).Gartner is seeing India-centric IT services companiesleveraging established market positions and levels of trust to explore nonlinear revenue growth models (which are not directly correlated to labor-based growth) and working on interesting research and development (R&D) efforts, especially in the area of cloud computing. The collective work from India-centric vendors represents an important segment of the market’s cloud aggregators, which will offer cloud-enabled outsourcing options (also known as cloud services).
Nope, HyperClouds will take the battle to the player who has scale, and specialisation. While several models will emerge such as build-and-tear, lease-and-rent, co-lease and co-rent. This field will be open to all service providers, not merely Indian IT. for instance, Atos, European IT majorannounced to outsource it’s infrastructure to Kelway This will give Atos similar advantage as it owns “smart assets” and jettisons “manageable assets” to more nimble players!
By 2012, Facebook will become the hub for social network integration and Web socialization.Through Facebook Connect and other similar mechanisms, Facebook will support and take a leading role in developing the distributed, interoperable social Web. As Facebook continues to grow and outnumber other social networks, this interoperability will become critical to the success and survival of other social networks, communication channels and media sites.
Other social networks (including Twitter) will continue to develop, seeking further adoption and specializations with communication or content areas, but Facebook will represent a common denominator for all of them.
Work in progress. With the recent M&A activity, we might see a very different world thanks to Facebook! But I do not foresee any interoperability. They want to go it alone. Similar work is to be expected of Google and Twitter, who own 75% of the advertising market. Watch this space very cautiously, if you were an investor or a portfolio manager!
By 2014, most IT business cases will include carbon remediation costs.Today, server virtualization and desktop power management demonstrate substantial savings in energy costs, and those savings can help justify projects. Incorporating carbon costs into business cases provides a further measure of savings, and prepares the organization for increased scrutiny of its carbon impact.
Economic and political pressure to demonstrate responsibility for carbon dioxide emissions will force more businesses to quantify carbon costs in business cases. Vendors will have to provide carbon life cycle statistics for their products or face market share erosion. Incorporating carbon costs in business cases will only slightly accelerate replacement cycles. A reasonable estimate for the cost of carbon in typical IT operations is an incremental one or two percentage points of overall costs. Therefore, carbon accounting will more likely shift market share than market size.
Nope, but really want it to happen! Unfortunately we might be heading to a data center crash situation as I have predicted a few years ago. There are directive and codes of conduct but nothing is mandatory…yet. We can work responsibly and I co-authored a research document in 2009. See my last article which explains why we need to care more about our planet and finite resources!