Essays··7 min
The Money Stack Behind the Model Stack
The AI story most boards are still being told is a productivity story. The one that matters is a balance-sheet story — a seven-hundred-billion-dollar…
Field notes from the studio.
Essays on AI strategy, the architecture of agent systems, and the economics underneath — drawn as working plates. No cadence, no content calendar. Posts when they are ready.
Series
Essays··8 min
The capex is real. The NPV is fiction.
Essays··8 min
Fluency Is Not a Subscription
The companies buying the most copilot seats are not the ones whose people are getting smarter — they are the ones whose people are getting faster at b…
Essays··8 min
Cutting the apprentices to pay for the autopilot
Profitable firms are cutting staff to fund AI capex they cannot yet show pays off — and freezing the junior hiring that manufactures expertise. Cuttin…
Essays··8 min
13%: the upskilling number that quietly breaks the agentic AI business case
Only 13% of employees can actually work with the agents their firms are deploying. The centaur the whole thesis assumes is mostly a novice holding the…
Essays··11 min
Sunday Essay — The Three Productivity Curves We Refuse to Reconcile
Three credible measurement traditions, applied to the same workforce in 2026, point in three different directions. The discourse treats them as one nu…
Essays··8 min
The owners are right. That's the part nobody wants to sit with.
The owners are directionally right that they can run with far fewer people. They are very often wrong about which people, how fast, and what it costs…
Essays··8 min
Three flags, one substrate
Three weeks of racks, export approvals, and merger announcements turned the sovereignty debate from a slide into a bill of materials. Run your finger…
Essays··1 min
The Comprehension Gap
A scroll-driven feature in four movements: how system complexity outran human comprehension by four orders of magnitude — and why you close the gap by…
Essays··8 min
Brussels turned sovereignty into procurement law last week. The capability to back it doesn't exist yet.
Brussels has turned digital sovereignty into procurement law, but the European compute to back it doesn't exist yet. Until capacity catches the rhetor…
Essays··22 min
A Nervous System for Software
The full argument behind the comprehension gap. Why we cannot close it by enlarging the engineer; why both the statistical and the structural approach…
Essays··8 min
Why You're Paying Twice for the Same Token
Any 2026 production agent stack without the three-layer caching pattern — engine prefix cache, API prompt cache, gateway semantic cache — is carrying…
Essays··8 min
the memory wall, the interconnect wall, and the one budget line that actually moved
Seven hundred billion dollars in quarterly capex and the useful question is not the size of the number — it is which of three walls the number is actu…
Essays··7 min
Hedge Funds Are AI'maxxing — and the Exit Door Is Getting Narrower
1,059 hedge funds have made a record, leveraged, one-directional bet on AI semiconductors. The underlying thesis is probably correct. But 'probably co…
Essays··7 min
Hannover Messe 2026 delivered an industrial AI arms race — here's what actually matters
The fork between copilot and agent is the right framing for the next two years of industrial AI. The technology is real — the governance architecture…
Essays··8 min
Erlangen, Spartanburg, and the Quiet Half of Industrial AI
The cognitive layer of industrial AI — copilots, agentic optimisation, the operating-system metaphor — is real and mostly in pilot. The physical layer…
Essays··7 min
The Grid Can't Keep Up — and AI Is on Both Sides of the Problem
AI is the tool that could compress seismic interpretation from months to days — and the workload that is breaking the grid it depends on. Anyone selli…
Essays··7 min
The Agentic AI Gap: SR 11-7 Is Dead, the EU AI Act Is Late, and Banks Are Shipping Agents Anyway
Three jurisdictions, zero frameworks designed for the agents already in production. The governance gap between SR 26-2's carve-out, the EU's sixteen-m…
Essays··25 min
Companies Are Workflows. The Audit Just Got Cheap.
Every enterprise is a graph of algorithms — and the bottleneck is the edges between nodes, not the nodes themselves. Private equity, with its hold-per…
Essays··7 min
Europe's AI Literacy Deadline Is Ten Weeks Away and Nobody Is Ready
The EU made AI literacy a legal duty eighteen months before the educational infrastructure it funded could plausibly deliver at scale. Article 4 enfor…
Essays··12 min
Sunday Essay — AI Literacy Is a Curriculum Word for an Assessment Problem
AI literacy is being legislated as a curriculum addition when the actual problem lives in the exam hall. Two institutions moved this fortnight — the E…
Essays··7 min
The Two-Front Squeeze: AI's Energy Appetite Meets Its Own Regulation
The regulatory squeeze and the energy squeeze are the same squeeze — and the industry has been running two separate playbooks as if they exist in diff…
Essays··7 min
The Death of Old SaaS Is Not a Victory Speech — It's a Distress Signal
Three rounds of layoffs, each with a grander narrative. The denominator keeps shrinking. ClickUp's 100x org is not strategy — it is a confused product…
Essays··8 min
Karpathy Joins Anthropic, and the Training Loop Starts to Close
Karpathy's first assignment at Anthropic is to point the current model at the job of building the next one. The research cycle is being compressed fro…
Essays··8 min
Monitoring Was the Old Deal. Extraction Is the New One.
Monitoring measures a worker so a manager can manage them. Extraction copies a worker so the worker is no longer needed. Meta is running the second pr…
Essays··7 min
Twelve Percent Faster, and Other Numbers I Don't Yet Believe
Four data sets, three methodologies, and no one who matters can yet give you a single defensible figure for AI's effect on knowledge-work productivity…
Essays··8 min
Geopatriation in Plain Sight: A Field Report from Brussels, Delhi, and Washington
Geopatriation — the localisation of AI workloads under sovereign pressure — is the dominant pattern in 2026. The compute sits under local governance;…
Essays··11 min
Sunday Essay — Two Models, One Mistake: Notes on the Evaluator-Optimizer Pattern After PocketOS
The failure was never the bad command. It was the absence of a check between the command and the consequence. The evaluator-optimizer pattern is barel…
Essays··9 min
The Agent Stack Just Became a Standard — And Most Enterprises Aren't Ready
MCP and A2A now sit under the Linux Foundation, adoption is measured in billions of tool calls, and the standards war is over. The harder question — w…
Essays··4 min
Agent teams will beat human teams
Mozilla's Mythos shipped 423 security fixes in a single month after fifteen months of human-pace trickle. The bottleneck was never talent or funding —…
Essays··3 min
Why I rebuilt this site around a studio
After thirty years of building, I wanted a home that reads less like a portfolio and more like a working room. A studio you can walk into. A few plate…
Studio··4 min
Notes on drawing a chip that sleeps
Plate I of the Synaptic Cartography series went through eleven drafts before it stopped feeling like a poster and started feeling like a window. Here…
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