- Essays··12 min read
Sunday Essay · Borrowing Long Against Chips That Live Short
The hyperscalers are funding multi-year GPU clusters with ten-year bonds against chips that go obsolete in three. The spread between the build-out adding up and not is wider than the people writing the checks acknowledge.
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The year capex stopped fitting on the balance sheet
Consensus for 2026 hyperscaler capex has roughly doubled in twelve months. A forecast that moves that far has lost its anchor, and this one is financed off the balance sheet, resting on chips nobody can defend as six-year assets.
ai-capexoff-balance-sheet-financinggpu-depreciationhyperscalersRead - Essays··8 min read
The capex is real. The NPV is fiction.
$1 trillion of compute spend is the most concrete thing in technology right now. The return it is meant to justify is the most fictional. The capex is real; the NPV is a guess dressed as a forecast.
ai-capexnet-present-valuehyperscalerscircular-financingRead - Essays··8 min read
The Money Stack Behind the Model Stack
The AI story most boards are still being told is a productivity story. The one that matters is a balance-sheet story: a $700 billion capex programme depreciated on assumptions nobody has fully tested.
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