- Essays··8 min read
the kernel of truth and the trillion-dollar bet
A bubble is not the same thing as a lie. There is a real technology, it gets oversold, and the financing built on the overselling becomes the actual fragility. The right question isn't whether AI is a bubble — it's who's holding the debt when demand disappoints.
ai-bubblehyperscaler-capexcircular-financingproductivity-paradoxRead - Essays··8 min read
The capex is real. The NPV is fiction.
A trillion dollars of compute spend is the most concrete thing in technology right now. The return it is meant to justify is the most fictional. The capex is real; the NPV is a guess dressed as a forecast.
ai-capexnet-present-valuehyperscalerscircular-financingRead