- Essays··10 min read
The Assumption That Decides $48 Billion
Reported profits from the hyperscalers' combined 2026 AI infrastructure capex are shaped not only by the spend itself but by a subtler lever: the useful lives assumed for AI accelerators. Amazon shortened server lives to five years in January 2025. Meta extended comparable assets to 5.5 years that same month. The divergence has attracted a FASB research project.
depreciationai-acceleratorshyperscaler-capexfinancial-reportingRead - Essays··8 min read
The capex is real. The NPV is fiction.
$1 trillion of compute spend is the most concrete thing in technology right now. The return it is meant to justify is the most fictional. The capex is real; the NPV is a guess dressed as a forecast.
ai-capexnet-present-valuehyperscalerscircular-financingRead