- Essays··8 min read
The bill nobody booked
The most expensive line item in your AI budget for the next two years is the one your finance team has not yet named. It is sitting in your environment already — half-built pilots, ghost fine-tunes, redundant copilots — capitalising itself into your monthly cloud invoice.
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13%: the upskilling number that quietly breaks the agentic AI business case
Only 13% of employees can actually work with the agents their firms are deploying. The centaur the whole thesis assumes is mostly a novice holding the reins — and AI is demolishing the training ground that produced the experts.
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Sunday Essay — The Three Productivity Curves We Refuse to Reconcile
Three credible measurement traditions, applied to the same workforce in 2026, point in three different directions. The discourse treats them as one number. The gaps between them are the actual managerial signal.
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The owners are right. That's the part nobody wants to sit with.
The owners are directionally right that they can run with far fewer people. They are very often wrong about which people, how fast, and what it costs to get there. Those two things are the whole story.
ai-and-labourworkforce-displacemententerprise-aiautomation-economicsRead - Essays··7 min read
Twelve Percent Faster, and Other Numbers I Don't Yet Believe
Four data sets, three methodologies, and no one who matters can yet give you a single defensible figure for AI's effect on knowledge-work productivity. The measurement culture is not up to the tooling — and the vendors will close that gap last.
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