- Essays··12 min read
Sunday Essay — Borrowing Long Against Chips That Live Short
The hyperscalers are funding multi-year GPU clusters with ten-year bonds against chips that go obsolete in three. The spread between the build-out adding up and not is wider than the people writing the checks acknowledge.
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Four levels of sovereign, and the clause that decides everything
Europe finally has a legal text for digital sovereignty — and a four-tier scale that decides who wins a tender. The clause that matters isn't Level 4 defence. It's the trapdoor buried in third-country recognition.
digital-sovereigntycloud-ai-development-acthyperscalerseu-regulationRead - Essays··8 min read
Brussels finally wrote sovereignty into a statute. The graveyard it's walking into is well-marked.
Brussels has finally written sovereignty into binding law, and the top rungs of CADA's ladder are built so a US-domiciled parent cannot reach them. On the law, I'd take the over. On the timeline, I'd take the under — heavily.
digital-sovereigntycloud-acteu-regulationhyperscalersRead - Essays··8 min read
The year capex stopped fitting on the balance sheet
Consensus for 2026 hyperscaler capex has roughly doubled in twelve months. That is not a forecast revision — it is a forecast that lost its anchor, financed off the balance sheet and resting on chips nobody can defend as six-year assets.
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The capex is real. The NPV is fiction.
A trillion dollars of compute spend is the most concrete thing in technology right now. The return it is meant to justify is the most fictional. The capex is real; the NPV is a guess dressed as a forecast.
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